Geotech to help elder-care planning
According to a Japanese research institute, the average annual healthcare cost of "extremely elderly", that is 85 years of age or above, is estimated at 1 million yen ($9,630), of which hospitalization costs account for more than half. In Hong Kong, based on a forecast by the Census and Statistics Department, the over-85 group would rise sharply 10 years later, ie. 2031, and the rapid growth is expected to remain for 20 years. The number of extremely elderly would be over 800,000, four times the number today, and would stay that way from 2049 onwards for years. Individuals and society as a whole would be under immense financial pressure.
The problem of ageing is unprecedented, and the world is groping for ways to deal with it. While there are almost 36 million elders aged 65 or over in Japan, the situation in China seems to be following the same path as Japan. Using neighbouring Guangdong Province as an example, the population aged 65 and above is expected to exceed 10 million in 2020 and well above 30 million in 30 years' time.
Diversified needs
Healthcare is only one dimension of the ageing issue. A survey of elderly services in the United Kingdom interviewed 3,000 people aged between 45 and 75, the majority of whom own their houses and therefore can afford to be choosy when it comes to care in late life. Their number one concern is internet access (97%) for keeping in touch with friends and family (83%) and the world (76%), as well as for entertainment (51%). 86% of them "want a hot meal to be served at dinner" (currently, serving a hot meal for lunch is more common there); 80% think "freedom of life" is the most important factor for the choice of care provision; and 55% want to move into an elderly home with their partner.
The above wish list could be shared with many Hong Kong people. In fact, with a total population of more than 10 million elders in Guangdong and Hong Kong, we could offer more choices according to their socioeconomic and family background and health conditions.
At present, the elderly service in Hong Kong is far from ideal. The general public has a poor impression of privately run elderly homes, and the Government's subsidized residential care service for the elderly is also inadequate with a waiting time as long as 41 months.
GIS can play role
Due to the differences between Guangdong and Hong Kong in social and cultural aspects, most local elders currently are not comfortable to move to Guangdong for retirement, and the problem needs to be sorted out by the two governments. In the long run, however, under the overarching trend of integrating Hong Kong into Guangdong-Hong Kong-Mocao Greater Bay Area, we should start to collaborate with the Bay Area to provide high-quality services for the elderly.
This will involve land use and housing, transport, infrastructure, labour force and more. In face of such a large and complex planning issue, geographic information system (GIS) can come into play. GlS, an electronic mapping software, efficiently aggregates, organizes, analyzes and visualizes all location-related data.
Through GlS software, the authority can readily identify suitable land, such as gentle slope at less than 25 degree, reducing the cost of leveling; land not far from main roads and cities, avoiding the most dangerous road sections, which is convenient for staff to commute and for family members to visit; and government land to avoid excessive land cost. This is the first step. Then the authority can incorporate other requirements into its planning, such as creating more eldercare home choices for people of all incomes.
Balanced growth
Take Seattle, the fastest growing city in the United States as an example. With a number of technology companies in the area, employment increased by 30% over the past decade with the population rising by 23%. The city government has to juggle the need to absorb 60 new residents daily while maintaining housing affordability and balancing the effects of a widening prosperity gap.
However, the Seattle authorities uphold the principle that while building more houses, they must also take care of the disadvantaged and maintain considerable farmlands and open space.
The government has pursued several strategies to encourage more accessory dwelling units in single-family neighborhoods, including removing regulatory barriers, and streamlining the permit issuing process. These take many forms, such as conversions of garage, basement, and backyard cottages. These units can provide new, space-efficient rental homes in neighborhoods where housing is often unaffordable to most people. And to their owners, the new settings can generate additional income. A zoning change is also passed that allows taller building heights and requires developers to create more affordable housing.
3D tools for collaboration
Meanwhile, the local legislation requires an updated inventory of available land every seven years. The buildable lands inventory measures development and reviews resultant population densities against the prior plan's growth forecast. However, the complex zoning plans and site guidelines are at least 25 centimeters thick if printed, but would be simple and convenient with GlS software.
At the same time, one of the key capabilities with GIS software, 3D city modelling, can facilitate efficiency and smooth communication for interdisciplinary planners and design professional to collaborate and for scenario planning as well as impact assessment. What's more, all planning workflow on one platform, from data collection, analysis, visualization to sharing of information with other departments and the public, and even decision-making will be made easier. Instead of using hard data, the 3D tool visualizes the what-if scenarios, showing estimated housing units under the supply of existing land with maps, charts and graphs, facilitating the participation of different holders such as nearby residents, and promoting social harmony.
Hong Kong, which introduced GlS more than 20 years ago, is a pioneer in Asia. Therefore, in terms of land use, we can take the initiative to communicate more with the Mainland to optimize urban planning and enhance the competitiveness of the whole GBA.
Dr. Winnie Tang
Adjunct Professor, Department of Computer Science, Faculty of Engineering; Department of Geography, Faculty of Social Sciences; and Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong